IStories found that during the war in 2022 the number of Russians who died from external causes increased.
ㅤThese include deaths caused not by disease, but by external influences — such as traffic accidents, murders, suicides, burns and others. Logically, those killed in war should fall in this category.
Also, this is the only category of causes of death that has grown in 2022.
In other categories published by Rosstat, mortality of Russians decreased during the same period. For example, people began to die less from neoplasms, respiratory diseases, infectious and parasitic diseases.
And also from diseases of the circulatory system and coronary heart disease.
Exactly male mortality from external causes has increased by 9%.
And women mortality from external causes has decreased by 8%.
The intervention of war in the statistics is obvious. Without it, male mortality from external causes would probably go down, too. And in 2022 about 98,000 men would have died of external causes, not 116,000.
But in fact we see an excess mortality from external causes, which should include war — about 18,000 people.
There is no data on mortality from external causes for men and women by regions separately. But if we look overall, Chechnya is the “leader” in the growth of mortality from external causes, with a twofold increase compared with last year, and the Rostov Oblast, with a 1.5-fold increase.
Buryatia, Dagestan, and North Ossetia are also among “leaders”, where mortality from external causes increased 1.4 times in 2022.
In addition, the increased mortality from all causes among young men from 18 to 29 years of age also indicates military casualties.
It had been decreasing precipitously until the years 2020 and 2021, rising slightly during the COVID pandemic. And in 2022, it jumped by 25% in one year — that is, by 4,400 people.
At the same time, mortality among young women has decreased. In 2022, 1,000 fewer women (17%) died at that age than in 2021.
In peacetime mortality trends for men and women do not usually differ. The mortality rate of young men might have decreased had it not been for war.
And then in 2022, not 20,200 men (18–29 years old) would die, but just over 13,000. That is the excess mortality of young men because of war could be about 7,100 people.
Mortality among young men increased the most in 2022 in the same regions where we also see abnormal mortality from external causes. The biggest increase in mortality was in Buryatia — 2.4 times.
And also in the Rostov Oblast and Dagestan — 2.1 times.
And in North Ossetia and Mordovia — 2 times.
Simply stated, twice as many young men died in these regions in 2022 as the year before. That is, it is clear from the Rosstat data that at least every second young man from these regions who died — died in the war.
Thus, military losses did appear in the official statistics, despite the fact that the Russian authorities carefully try to hide them from the Russians.
ㅤHow much does this data reflect reality?
From the Rosstat data we can calculate 7,100 young men (18–29 years old) who died in the war.
The 5,800 killed is about 40% of the full 2022 list of deaths of all ages by name collected by journalists and volunteers.
There are a total of 14,500 people on this list.
If we assume that the 7,100 young men seen in the Rosstat data are also about 40% of the casualties of all ages, then the total number of men who died in war and were included in the official statistics would be almost 18,000.
It is important to keep in mind that journalists and volunteers only collect public reports of the dead.
ㅤThey usually see twice as many dead soldiers in war graves as they do in public sources. Therefore, the BBC Russian Service and Mediazona list should be multiplied by two to give a more accurate estimate of military casualties. Then the estimate of the number of deaths in 2022 will approach 30,000.
And that's without counting missing in action.